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Thai DDC predicts three Covid-19 scenarios after Thailand reopens


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The Department of Disease Control, called the DDC, has forecast three scenarios of the Covid-19 situation in Thailand after the country reopens 17 tourist provinces to vaccinated foreign visitors from Nov 1.

Under the plan that will become a reality on Monday, visitors flying by plane from 46 countries with low levels of Covid19 infections will not be required to quarantine but will be required to prove that they have also received one full vaccination of an approved Covid19 vaccine for at least 14 days, if also produce a negative RT-PCR test result taken no more than 72 hours prior to flying.

“The first and best scenario is called the ‘green scenario’, where the chance of spreading the virus from one infected patient to another person was reduced by 25 per cent compared to the pre-lockdown period,” said Dr Chawetsan Namwat, Director of DDC’s Disease and Health Risk Management Department.

“In this scenario, the number of daily infections gradually decreases to about 5,000 people per day. To achieve this result, the strict Covid19 measures must be applied while the vaccination rate from October to December must meet the target.”

“The orange scenario, or when the chance of the virus spreading is reduced by 15 per cent compared to the pre-lockdown period, will result in a slightly reduced daily infection rate,” he added.

“This scenario can be achieved by closing high-risk locations and banning public gatherings and alcoholic beverages in restaurants. The vaccination rate from October to December must also meet the target.”

“Finally, the grey scenario will happen if the chances of spreading the virus cannot be reduced to the above levels and the vaccination coverage from October to December does not reach the target,” Chawetsan said.

“This will result in an increase in the number of infections to the same level as in the pre-lockdown period, while the number of daily infections could reach 10,000 people.”

“Keep in mind that the number of infections is not the only factor determining the severity of the outbreak situation. We also need to consider the readiness of the public health system when treating Covid-19 patients,” Chawetsan emphasized.

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