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Thailand to ‘cancel’ Covid-19 as scheduled

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Despite gloomy forecasts, Thailand expects to ease restrictions and declare Covid-19 endemic as of July 1

Thailand’s Ministry of Health is sticking to its original timetable to declare Covid-19 endemic as of July 1, despite a forecast indicating an increase in deaths, mostly among the elderly.

Under the worst-case scenario projected by the Covid-19 Situation Center, the number of new cases in Thailand could climb to 100,000 per day. It will take two to four weeks before clear data are available, said Dr. Chakkarat Pithayovonganon, director of the epidemiology division of the Department of Disease Control.

“We are now seeing a decrease in the number of daily cases of infection from about 30,000 a day before the Songkran holiday to only 16,000 cases a day,” Dr. Chakkarat said.

However, the number of deaths and the number of patients needing ventilators has increased. The Department of Disease Control expects these numbers to increase during the first week of May.

According to the department, the average number of people who died from Covid-19 in Thailand in the past seven days was 107 cases a day, of which 90 percent were elderly.

“Personally, I’m not very concerned about infections after the festival because the at-risk group includes working people who are less likely to have symptoms,” Dr. Chakkarat said. “Many people have already received one or two doses of the vaccine. But the problem is that they can pass the disease on to older people in their families. We could see more deaths among the elderly,” the doctor said.

Dr. Chakkarat said that unless there are other possible risks, such as new variants, Kovid-19 will be declared endemic in Thailand on July 1. To prepare for the endemic, the ministry must convince the two million older people over the age of 60 who have not yet been vaccinated against Coovid-19 to be vaccinated.

A ministry study found that administering two doses of the vaccine could reduce the death rate by a factor of five and up to 31 if the elderly were also revaccinated. Also, according to the study, half of the population has an increased level of immunity against Covid-19, and that rate is expected to reach at least 70 percent.

Dr. Chakkarat added that the department has received reports of small outbreaks in many places around the country, adding that the next round of outbreaks is expected to occur in crowded places such as military camps, schools and factories, not in families. The Department of Disease Control recommends working from home during the first week after the Songkran holiday. Those who need to be in the office are advised to get an antigen test before going to work and again in the middle of the week.

Meanwhile, Thailand’s Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul is preparing to propose a mitigation plan to the Covid-19 Situation Center on Friday. In response to a proposal by the Ministry of Tourism and Sports to change the PCR test requirement to an antigen test for foreign tourists, Anuthin said it will happen at some point, but first a study needs to be done.

“The number of infections needs to be assessed to make sure the country is ready to declare Covid-19 endemic in July, as planned,” the minister said. “Preparedness in all aspects is the most important thing,” Anutin said.

“Covid-19 infection due to personal contact in daily life is normal. If we are all vaccinated, the prospect will not be so alarming,” the health minister noted.

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